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Showing posts from July, 2017

Data Mining for Fund Raisers: How to Use Simple Statistics to Find the Gold in Your Donor Database Even If You Hate Statistics: A Starter Guide

This is a repost of a Goodreads' review I made in 2013, for a book I read in 2005, which seems relevant now, as the industry is adding a data-driven focus. Plus, the world is now being transformed by advances in artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML), particularly deep learning, and the large data sets and complexity of donor actions should greatly benefit from analysis. Note, the tax changes for 2018 and beyond will increase the importance of major donors, attenuating the benefits of AI/ML, as data for high-net-worth individuals is sparse.

Data Mining for Fund Raisers: How to Use Simple Statistics to Find the Gold in Your Donor Database Even If You Hate Statistics: A Starter Guide by Peter B. Wylie

My rating: 4 of 5 stars

My spouse, at times a development researcher of high-net worth individuals, was given this book because she was the 'numbers' person in the office. Since my undergraduate was focused on lab-design, including analysis of results using statis…

Value-at-Risk (VaR) Calculator Class in Python

As part of my self-development, I wanted to rework a script, which are typically one-offs, and turn it into a reusable component, although there are existing packages for VaR. As such, this is currently a work in progress. This code is a Python-based class for VaR calculations, and for those unfamiliar with VaR, it is an acronym for value at risk, the worst case loss in a period for a particular probability. It is a reworking of prior work with scripted VaR calculations, implementing various high-level good practices, e.g., hiding/encapsulation, do-not-repeat-yourself (DRY), dependency injection, etc.

Features:
Requires data frame of stock returns, factor returns, and stock weightsExpose a method to calculate and return a single VaR number for different variance typesExpose a method to calculate and return an array of VaR values by confidence levelExpose a method to calculate and plot an array of VaR values by confidence level Still to do:
Dynamic factor usage Note: Data to valida…

Calculating Value at Risk (VaR) with Python or R

The following modules linked below are based on a Pluralsight course, Understanding and Applying Financial Risk Modeling Techniques, and while the code itself is nearly verbatim, this is mostly for my own development, working through the peculiarities of Value at Risk (VaR) in both R and Python, and adding commentary as needed.

The general outline of this process is as follows:
Load and clean Data Calculate returns Calculate historical variance Calculate systemic, idiosyncratic, and total variance Develop a range of stress variants, e.g. scenario-based possibilities Calculate VaR as the worst case loss in a period for a particular probability The modules:
In R: Financial Risk - Calculating Value At Risk (VaR) with R In Python: Financial Risk - Calculating Value At Risk (VaR) with Python

Review: Make Your Own Neural Network

As part of understanding neural networks I was reading Make Your Own Neural Network by Tariq Rashid. A review is below:

Make Your Own Neural Network by Tariq Rashid
My rating: 4 of 5 stars

The book itself can be painful to work through, as it is written for a novice, not just in algorithms and data analysis, but also in programming. For the neural network aspect, it jumped between overly simplistic and complicated, while providing neither in enough detail. That said, by the end I found it a worthwhile dive into neural networks, since once it got to the programming structure, it all made sense, but only because I stuck with it.

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